According to the fund size data of MSCI tracking its global index, in emerging markets, the scale of passive and active funds is , with active funds occupying an absolute dominant position. Therefore, we recommend focusing on the trends of active funds. The return of active foreign capital is usually lagging. For example, at the end of , the market rebounded for three consecutive months from the end of October. Active foreign capital only began to flow in after the market had risen for two months and increased by . It also requires higher fundamentals and policy thresholds. We estimate that if active foreign investment returns to the standard, the scale of required inflows will be approximately US$. billion, which exceeds the total scale of overseas active funds flowing out of the Chinese market since the beginning of approximately US$. billion.
Source: Wind, EPFR, CICC Research Department
Chart: As of the end of November, the allocation ratio of global sweden phone number list active funds to Chinese stocks fell from pt in September to pt
Source: EPFR, CICC Research Department
Outlook for : Determine the main market trend and allocation opportunities based on the credit cycle
Looking back at the Hong Kong stock market in , the reason why it presents the characteristics of "rebound is intermittent, structure is the main line" is that the clues of the credit cycle run through it all the time, which is also the main basis for our judgments in the past year.